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The Growing Dogubeyazit Cluster Raises Pandemic Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary
January 17, 2006
Speaking on Tuesday morning, Dr Sahin stated that Muhammad Ozcan who has been at the hospital for the last six days was now receiving oxygen treatment after an infection had spread to his lungs. Dr Sahin added that 33 people, 26 of whom are children, are still receiving treatment at the hospital on suspicion of bird flu.
The above comments on patients current hospitalize in Van raises additional questions about the large cluster of patients from Dogubeyazit. A large number of H5N1 positive patients have already left the hospital because they died or were discharged. These included four Kocigit siblings and eight of the10 Ozcan cousins. In addition Fatma Ozcan has also died and the Mumak cousins have been discharged. Most or all of these patients were from Dogubeyazit and were likely H5N1 infected, even though most tested negative at one point.
Thus, although 17 patients are no longer hospitalized, 33 remain hospitalized, indicating most of the 50 patients were from Dogubeyazit. This heavy clustering over an extended time frame is cause for concern. The Kocigit siblings developed symptoms in December, yet new patients are still coming from Dogubeyazit and being admitted into the hospital in Van or Erzurum, where the 21st H5N1 positive patient is hospitalized.
Many of these patients belong to the Kocigit or Ozcan families, but the large number of patients in the hospital being treated for H5N1 suggests transmission to humans has been extensive in Dogubeyazit and is cause for concern.
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