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Commentary

Spike In H1N1 Deaths In Mexico Raise Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 12:45
February 11, 2010

The recently released update from the Ministry of Health in Mexico lists 1026 lab confirmed fatalities, which is markedly higher than the 880 reported a month earlier.  Although there is a delay in lab confirmations of fatal cases, a comparison of confirmations in the four weeks prior to each report has 44 fatalities for the February 8 report, compared to 9 for the January 6 report.  Moreover, the total number of cases confirmed has been declining, leading to an increase in the apparent case fatality rate.

Recent sequences, including those from Mexico have shown an increase in D225G and D225N in samples from fatal cases.  These increases have raised concern that a new wave of infections could have a higher frequency of this two receptor binding domain changes, leading to more severe and fatal cases.  Comments on more severe cases have been made by physicians in Tennessee and North Carolina, and the recent spike in H1N1 confirmed fatalities in Michigan has increased those concerns.

The increases in Mexico could be due in part to an emphasis on confirmation of fatal cases, but media reports have also described increases in fatalities in patients with H1N1 symptoms, indicating the increases in recently confirmed cases represent a spike in fatal cases, and not an increased focus on testing fatal cases.

However, sequences from these recently confirmed cases and any information in changes in confirmation procedures or emphasis would be useful.

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