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H5 Bird Flu Confirmed in Poland  

Recombinomics Commentary

March 5, 2006

Poland has confirmed its first cases of avian flu after two swans were found dead.

 The swans were discovered on the bank of the River Vistula, in the northern city of Torun.

"Initial tests confirmed that it is the H5 virus.

The above comments indicate H5N1 will be confirmed in Poland.  This confirmation would not be surprised.  H5N1 has been confirmed in a large number of European countries.  All have detected H5N1 in wild birds prior to domestic poultry, and swans have been the most frequently cited source.

These data suggest H5N1 has been throughout Europe since the fall.  The surveillance system is lacking, because no infections in live wild birds have been detected.

However, the widespread detection of H5N1 offers a unique opportunity to expand the database of H5N1 sequences which show that the virus is evolving rapidly and monitoring of such evolution can be greatly aided by rapid disclosure of the sequences.

Unfortunately, these sequences are not being released.  They are being hoarded in a WHO private data base and being analyzed by WHO consultants who insists the recombination driving the evolution is "random mutations" and cannot be used for predictions.

The sequences can be used for predictions as was done for S227N, and the sequences should be released immediately.

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