Record Levels of H5N1 in South Korea
Recombinomics Commentary 12:17
April 20, 2008
The avian influenza has hit 25 farms with 4.85 million chickens and ducks culled since the first outbreak on April 1, the ministry said in a statement.
The ministry statement on Sunday did not specify how many of the 25 outbreaks, though all involving the H5 virus, were of the "deadly" H5N1 strain that sometimes claims human lives.
"We have not made a full count of H5N1 outbreaks yet, which should be released after putting this epidemic under control first," Kim Chang-Sup, a director handling bird flu at the ministry, told Agence France-Presse Sunday.
But Kim denied some news reports that 25 outbreaks were all of the H5N1 strain. Officials have privately confirmed at least seven H5N1 outbreaks.
The above comments indicate South Korea is playing fast and loose with the facts regarding H5N1 infections throughout the southwestern portion of the country (see satellite map). The government has already filed OIE reports detailing 11 outbreaks by April 15. 6 were confirmed H5N1 and five were confirmed HPAI H5. HPAI H5 in South Korea in the proximity of HPAI H5N1 is H5N1. Although technically the N1 had not yet been determined, the HPAI would indicate that the cleavage site of H5 had been sequenced and it had a polybasic cleavage site, which would indicate the H5 was from H5N1 and probably the Uvs Lake strain of H5N1 (a more evolved version of the clade 2.2 Qinghai strain, which was reported for South Korea in the 2006/2007 outbreak.
An April 19 (Stars and Stripes) report from the US military in Korea indicates 20 outbreaks have been classified as HPAI H5 and 16 more farms were suspected H5N1, once again strongly suggesting that all 25 H5 outbreaks have been classified as HPAI H5, which means they will all be classified H5N1 after the N1 is determined.
Thus, stating that not all H5 outbreaks have been classified as H5N1, in the absence of a statement saying that not all H5 have been classified as HPAI H5 (which would subsequently be classified as H5N1), is at best misleading.
It is extremely likely that all 25 H5 outbreaks have already been classified as HPAI H5 and it is also extremely likely that the 15-20 suspect H5N1 outbreaks will test as HPAI H5, followed by the H5N1 Qinghai strain.
Thus, this outbreak will almost certainly be the largest outbreak reported to date in South Korea (almost 5 million birds have already been culled), and would also highlight significant surveillance detection / reporting failures in neighboring countries, including Japan which has announced plans to implement a pre-pandemic vaccine program targeting 10-20 million citizens, beginning with first responders.
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