H5N1 Migration From Japan Toward Alaska
Recombinomics Commentary 03:17
May 2, 2008
The recent confirmation of H5N1 in South Korea, Primorie, and Japan suggests H5N1 may be migrating toward the North American Aleutian Islands (see satellite map). At the beginning of April, South Korea reported H5N1 outbreaks at record levels. Although H5N1 has been confirmed in South Korea in three of the last five seasons, this season’s confirmations were the first in late spring, when birds were migrating to the north.
The northern migration of H5N1 was supported by they confirmation of H5N1 in Primorie, which was the first time Russian had reported H5N1 in the southeast region. The record outbreak in southwestern Korea subsequently spread to southeastern Korea, and North Korea went on bird flu alert.
Most recently, Japan reported dead swans in Akita on April 21. Three of the dead swans were H5N1 confirmed. Those deaths were followed by additional deaths on April 23 and 26 at the lake in Akita. This was followed by the detection of a dead swan on April 25 in Hokkaido, which has now been confirmed as bird flu positive, which will likely be confirmed as H5N1 positives.
Thus, the above series define a number of sites with H5N1 infected birds, including wild birds in Russia and Japan. These areas have not previously reported H5N1 in the late spring. These confirmations raise concerns that H5N1 is migrating north within the East-Asian / Australia flyway, which connects Japan and Russia to North America via the Aleutian Islands.
The latest confirmed case in Hokkaido is approximately 800 miles northeast of the outbreaks in Korea, and 800 miles from the western-most Aleutian Islands.
Japan has increased surveillance and has announced the activation of a pre-pandemic vaccine plan. Similarly, the United States has announced the purchase of vaccine directed against clade 2.2 H5N1 isolated from a bar headed goose.
The latest developments point toward an H5N1 migration into North America in the upcoming weeks.
Sequence data on the isolates from South Korea, Japan, and Russia would be useful.
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