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Commentary
150 Tested For
H3N2v Influenza A In Gallia County Ohio?
Recombinomics
Commentary 01:30
August 9, 2012
The above comments on the initial testing of symptomatic cases at the Gallia Junior County Fair in Green, Ohio provides insight into the demographics of the cases and suggests that number of know symptomatic cases may have exceeded 150.
In the above list, about 20% of the cases are adults, which is markedly higher than the reported frequencies in prior outbreaks.
In additional, the above comments just report the first round of testing.
The reported number of influenza A positive cases was 62, which was generated via two sets of testing which produced 37 and 25 positives.
Thus, it seems likely that the 37 came from testing the 95. A 40% sensitivity for the rapid test is not unusual. If so, the other 25 positives would have come from testing an additional 60 symptomatic cases, indicating that the number tested exceeded 150, and the 150 would only represent a sub-set of those who were infected because many would not ask for or consent to testing.
Moreover, although 62 were influenza A positive, only 4 have been H3N2v confirmed, indicating there is a very large backlog, or a limited amount of confirmatory testing.
The CDC is clearly getting overwhelmed, and is now requesting the states to confirm positives, which represents a striking parallel with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
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