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Commentary
Ukraine H1N1 Deaths
and Hospitalizations Spike Higher
Recombinomics
Commentary 21:54
November 2, 2009
15810 Hospital Admissions
235 Intensive Care
70 deaths
The above numbers reflect the latest government update on cases in the Ukraine. They are dramatically higher than those reported in the past few days and raise concerns that the death toll will increase significantly over the next several days.
Some wire service reports and comments from WHO have downplayed these numbers, noting that the death rate for Ukraine is similar to other countries in Europe. However, the deaths in the other countries accumulated over the entire pandemic flu season, while the deaths in the Ukraine were in the past few weeks, with most cases reported in the past few days.
About 5% of patients admitted with H1N1 infections have died in other countries, so that rate in the patients currently hospitalized would increase the deaths in Ukraine 10 fold, which would be markedly higher than any other European country. Moreover, the vast majority of the cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths are in three Oblasts in western Ukraine. Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk (see map).
This concentration of H1N1, including serious and fatal cases, raises concerns that the virus in this region has changed. Samples have been sent to London for analysis and prompt release of that data would be useful.
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