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Commentary
H3N2
Death Cluster In Akita Hospital Increases To Eight
Recombinomics
Commentary 17:15
November 9, 2010
The above translation indicates the death toll at the hospital in Akita, Japan continues to rise. The number of confirmed deaths has increased to eight. A ninth death was not confirmed. Media reports indicate the vaccination campaign started after the outbreak began, raising concerns that the death toll may have been increased by the inappropriate start of the vaccinations.
However, the rapid spread of H3N2 prior to the vaccinations once again indicates the high attack rate was linked to the virus and not the vaccine.
Although a spike in H3N2 deaths in the elderly in the 2010/2011 season was expected, eight confirmed deaths in the psychiatric ward of one hospital is high and may signal a significant hike in P&I deaths throughout the northern hemisphere as the number of cases rise. In Japan ILI cases have jumped to epidemic levels in two prefectures, including Hokkaida, which is adjacent to Akita.
Sequences from summer collections identified a low reactor sub-clade that had spread worldwide, which included multiple samples from Japan. It is likely that the recent cases involve H3N2 that has evolved further from the vaccine target, Perth16.
Release of sequence data from the current lethal outbreak in Akita would be useful.
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