Commentary
Rapid
H5N1
Spread in Assam India Raises Pandemic Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary
16:35
December 6, 2008
Villagers like Montu Ali in Kamrup region were unwilling to hand over their chicks despite the culling officers making them understand the results of the virus spreading further.
Ali, a poultry farm owner said, “They say that they will pay us Rs 20 per bird, but the market price is Rs 22 per bird.
The above comments raise concerns that the recent spread of H5N1 to five districts (see update map), will be increased by delayed testing and below market compensation. The above comments indicate the poultry in the five districts has been dying for the past 1-2 weeks, which increases the change of spread to resident wild birds as well as those eating the birds, including villagers. A year ago birds began dying in West Bengal in December, but the first OIE report was not filed until mid-January, and culling operations began in late January and February. The result was the largest outbreak in India and Bangladesh reported to date, and the first confirmed human case (in Dhaka in Bangladesh).
It is likely that the number of human cases in India and Bangladesh were markedly higher than the one confirmed case. These additional infections in humans, as well as other mammals eating dead or dying birds increases the likelihood of genetic changes leading to more efficient transmission human to human. A year ago there was a confirmed H2H2H transmission chain in Pakistan, which began with a culler who fatally infected a brother, who the infected two additional brothers. Published sequences from India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are clade 2.2.3, raising concerns that similar increases in transmission efficiencies could evolve from the infections in Indian and/or Bangladesh.
The early start of the outbreak in Assam and Bangladesh raises concerns that the outbreak could spread as the temperature drops and more birds migrate to and through the area.
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