Commentary
H5N1
Spread to West Bengal India
Recombinomics Commentary
13:14
December 10, 2008
The above comments from an alert issued by Meghalaya suggest H5N1 has spread from the confirmed outbreaks in Assam to multiple locations in West Bengal and Bangladesh (see satellite map). Although not confirmed, such spread is not unexpected.
Bangladesh has already confirmed H5N1 in its northwest region (see map), which is near the above rumored outbreaks. Similarly, West Bengal, Tripura, and Mizoram have issued alerts, citing possible outbreaks in Bangladesh and one media report has cited unnatural poultry deaths in Tripura and Mizoram.
Last season there were also rumors of widespread H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh in January, when H5N1 was widely reported in West Bengal. Bangladesh subsequently confirmed H5N1 in record numbers in poultry, as well as dead crows and one human case in the slums of Dhaka.
Calcutta has also issued an alert, primarily focusing on wild birds, which have been acknowledged as the likely source for the rapidly expanding outbreak in Assam. In the past, and in the current outbreak, lab confirmation of outbreaks in India has lagged the spread. Last season culling was initiated in the absence of lab confirmation, and many locations with unnatural poultry deaths, such as Assam and Meghalaya, were not confirmed / reported as H5N1. Moreover, dead crows, dogs, jackals, and other wild birds reported in association with confirmed H5N1 in poultry were not reported as H5N1 positive in India, although dead crows were H5N1 confirmed in Bangladesh.
Thus, H5N1 spread into areas adjacent to Assam are expected, but confirmation of such outbreaks may be significantly delayed.
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