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Commentary
Ukraine Cases Top 3
Million - 21 New Deaths
Recombinomics
Commentary 04:35
December 20, 2009
171,076 Hospitalized
539 Deaths
The above numbers reflect the latest update from Ukraine. There was no report on Friday, so the increase in deaths of 21 represents two days, but weekend numbers are traditionally low, so the majority of the 21 new fatalities were likely to have been from the missing Friday report. Six of the fatalities were in Donetsk, border Russia (see map), while five more were in Kiev or the Kiev oblast. Cases, which now top 3 million, had slowed, but the numbers have surged in the past week and now fatalities are beginning to rise also.
The four fatalities tested by Mill Hill had D225G, while the CDC deposited sequences for two additional cases, which were also likely fatalities, and they both had D225N. The presence of receptor binding domain changes at position 225 raises concerns that the frequency of these cases and association with fatal or severe cases will continue to grow. Recent snow storms have cause major power outages in recent days, which could contribute to more cases and fatalities.
There has also been a recent spike in H274Y in many countries including the United States and Japan, and the increases have included the sub-clade circulating in Ukraine when the initial cases were reported.
Therefore, Ukraine may serve as bell weather for the third wave.
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